Peak Oil Scenario--collapse of civilization imminent?

 

The Global Peak Oil phenomenon – the peak then eventual decline of the entire planet's oil production – is very real. It is not something conjured up by fantasy freaks or doomsayers who have something to profit from it. It is instead based on overwhelming scientific data, evidence and conjecture and analysis by (conservative) geologists, physicists and knowledgeable investment bankers. This is not a "conspiracy theory."

 

For some odd reason this issue still has not made it to the mainstream media, and is still relegated to the "Internet." No one likes doomsayers; we all want to told "everything will be fine." The reason one cannot often hear the "big names" talking about the realities of Peak Oil in mainstream media is that it would create a panic in the populace and markets.

Why is it that so many are in denial? Most economists and financial advisers focus only on short-term, trivial cycles and "blips" in the market, while ignoring the big picture and long-term future. This author looks 5, 10, 20 and 50 years ahead.

It is an observable FACT, for instance, that the U.S. reached peak oil discoveries in the 1930's and domestic peak oil production by 1970 and has been declining ever since and to this day production is 35% lower than in 1970. This is evidenced by the USA's reliance on foreign oil since roughly that time.

Furthermore, 46 out of 54 oil producing nations are in terminal decline in production, having passed their peak long ago.

The fact is, Peak Oil is NOT "belief" or "opinion" or "theory" or "myth" but instead a tangible, very REAL and serious phenomenon and has been PROVEN valid and is a reality. It therefore is an observable, objective truth.

Global production will also peak for reasons that are similarly scientifically based and logical, following a bell curve, very shortly. It is not about "running out" of oil, but rather the point to be reached where production no longer increases, but begins to decline, following a bell curve.

In fact, most oil-producing and exporting nations outside OPEC have peaked long ago, and their collective production is in terminal decline. In other words, there exists very little “spare capacity” remaining. Some have suggested that the oil fields are "refilling" themselves. This is not true for the majority of oil fields, globally. Those who imagine we still have 200 years of oil remaining seem to have their head in the sand. "Don't worry, be happy" is their motto.

Is there an easy "transition" from oil to alternatives? Well, the fact is, there really are NO alternatives to transition TO (on a large scale, macro, global scale) once oil production peaks then begins it's inevitable decline.

In fact, since I first wrote this article in 2005, oil prices skyrocketed and we've been in somewhat of a "plateau" period in oil prices and production. Furthermore, I have not observed any mass transition to alternatives (except on a micro-level) in industrialized society in the past decade, even after oil skyrocketed to record levels, especially in 2008. The fact is, even IF there was some "magic bullet" with all the alternatives, it would take a minumum of 10 to 20 years to impliment them on a large scale, with trillions of dollars in investment. It is basically "too late" to avoid a massive economic and financial collapse.

We consume six barrels of oil for every one we discover. In fact, global discovery rates peaked in the 1960s. There is only a certain amount of oil in the ground, and we now have a pretty good idea of how much is "cheap" or economically scalable and producible at prices which will make oil-dependent, industrialized nations function smoothly, with expected growth in GDP. The "experts" in the field proclaim that 90% of all the oil to ever be discovered has already been discovered.

Production of any oil well, field or country and collectively the globe, follows a bell curve - always has, always will. This is a proven fact, not theory. Once the easy-to-get, cheap oil is extracted, about 50%, then it becomes increasingly more difficult and expensive to extract the remaining. Production declines steadily, and the remaining becomes more difficult and expensive per barrel to extract.

These are facts, not personal "opinion" or blind speculation.

Peak oil is not a new concept; it has been around since 1956, when M.K. Hubbert published his famous bell curve on discovery and production rates for the years ahead. He was derided at the time as a pessimist and doomsayer, yet he was right on target. U.S. production peaked, then declined, from 1970 onward, year by year, almost every year.

The vast majority of oil on the planet has long since been discovered, and we are pumping oil from these global reservoirs at a rate of 84 million gallons per day, or 30 billion barrels per year. Production has been meeting demand for all these years and at a cheap price. In fact, so cheap it is was the next best thing to free energy!

An entire, never-before-seen affluent society emerged. It also is but a BLIP in the long march of history – a temporary aberration. It is not the beginning of some centuries-long ultra-prosperous society, where “flying cars” are used by the populace, and we colonize Mars, etc. The former is only a utopian fantasy.

In the near future it will no longer be possible for production to meet global demand. Global demand is expected to grow to 120 million barrels per day by 2025, thanks to increasing U.S., Chinese and Indian appetites for this precious commodity. Yet production will never rise above 90 million barrels per day. In fact, 84 million barrels per day may be the maximum, meaning we are essentially AT PEAK as I write this.

Peak oil is near, if not already here. The implications of an unbridgeable gap between supply and demand are extreme and imminent.

The best, educated guesses, using scientific estimates and analysis by many engaged in full time Peak Oil study, based on known reserves and using basic math of how much oil has been extracted and burned since the first wells were drilled (almost one trillion barrels) project the peak as imminent, around 2012 or so, while a few say a peak-like plateau began around 2000, as evidenced by the price of oil having risen several hundred percent in price since that time.

Also, as I write this oil reached $145 a barrel a few years ago (2008) and is still quite high, due to OPEC "supply problems." In other words, with production running at maximum, with demand worldwide continuing to increase. Is it actual Peak Oil, or another false date? What matters is not the exact timing, but rather the reality of Peak Oil. We can speculate until we are blue in the face, but nobody, not even this prophet, knows the exact date of peak, then decline, although it is obvious that it is "soon."

We are in a remarkably similar situation to the Y2K computer bug scare in the early days of the Internet, 1997. That was the "good old days" of the Internet. That was also before the age of spam. This was an issue that was almost entirely debated and studied on this newfound medium. While there were many unknown variables as to the seriousness of the problem of Y2K, many were convinced that this could or would be a societal disaster if not taken seriously and the worst-case scenarios featured a shutdown of the power grid and critical infrastructure due to the embedded chip problem.

The issue was SIMULTANEITY of potential breakdowns, cascading upon each other. But again, no one knew the reality of what we would face at the 2000 rollover. At the time, the macro-implications were not well understood, but those who studied the problem in depth came to the conclusion that it would at least cause widespread disruptions and a recession. At first it was ridiculed, then it was violently attacked, then was held to be self-evident; then it was SOLVED.

In 1997 and 1998 (when I first began writing publicly and covering Y2K) there was widespread denial and wishful thinking as to what we faced when the computers rolled over to 00. This was the first time in history we had an accurate date for a POTENTIAL crisis.

Many of the most popular doomsayers and alarmists and pessimistic programmers were giving dire assessments. But most people laughed at the concept and anyone who would dare say we were facing a serious problem. My website provided a dire but well-presented argument for a potential collapse, based on the best and most respected "evidence" we at the time possessed. The evidence seemed to be overwhelming.

However, as we all know it turned out that many of these gurus and programmers were left flabbergasted that virtually NOTHING happened at the rollover: no bank runs, no stock market collapse, no recession and no power failures. Many of these Y2K experts and gurus were then derided, ridiculed and written off and fell from the public radarscope, tail between legs, never to be heard from again.

Many who studied the scope and complexity of the problem still look back at those days, disillusioned or flabbergasted that nothing happened. The vast majority of the population never actually took Y2K seriously, (that dang "YK" thang!) even when it increasingly made headlines and lengthy articles in the mainstream press, such as Time, Newsweek and the Wall Street Journal.

Some still resent the fact that they invested for a stock market collapse by 1999, or in gold, or stored food and water against seemingly certain disruptions. Some still ask themselves, was it all just hype by profit-meisters about a non-serious problem, or was it also due to the fact that Government and corporations finally took the threat seriously, and threw money at it (an estimated half a trillion dollars worldwide)? It was probably a combination; not quite as serious as first thought, AND that the dire warnings were heeded.

I was an embryonic prophet/angel/messenger at that time. Little did I realize I was engaging in classic prophecy in the truest sense of the word: ISSUING WARNING AND STATING THE OBVIOUS, with the unstated goal of altering the future! Yet consciously I was just another schmuck who made it a full-time obsession.

True prophecy (as opposed to merely "making predictions") is about issuing a warning to people who will listen which is also intended for political and economic leaders. The Y2K computer scare was therefore merely a trial run for my becoming a full-fledged prophet of the Most High.

Now it should be stated that I did in fact have a visionary dream of Y2K in July 1999 which I made public at the time to 700 subscribers and on the website which indicated the rollover would come and go with no problems. However I did not realize I would soon be awakened as a messenger angel, and I, as well as my readers, did not take the dream seriously.

After all, who would actually take someone's dream as literal, prophetic truth? At roughly the same time I became disillusioned and stopped saying Y2K was a serious threat, and said so publicly, yet I remained firm in my view and conviction of potential economic collapse (or, recession) and stock market collapse, along with World War III, which I intuitively knew was coming in the distant future.

At the time, in the pre 9/11, 2001 peace of the late 90's, I was derided for writing about a coming global war and to be honest I did not know the exact trigger or details. I continued with economic warnings of a market collapse and imminent recession and WWIII.

"Doomsayer!"

"Daniel, come on, why do you keep bringing up Y2K? That was more than 10 long years ago! Quit living in the past!"

The fact that we live in a fragile, overly complex society never changed. And the warning of the fiat-money-based house-of-cards debt and bubble-based economy, which has shifted to real estate in the past few years, stands firm. We will suffer in the coming years to a degree presently perceived as unimaginable.

At the rollover of 2000 and after, Y2K had come and gone and what I had to thereafter reveal made hundreds of subscribers roll their eyes in disbelief. Despite my prophecies thereafter coming to pass with an accuracy rate similar to Biblical prophecy (if you even believe in prophecy), with the 2000 stock collapse predicted, and the 2001 recession accurately forecasted, as well as the global war which came with a 9/11/2001 trigger, as well as the Bush presidency and Iraq war predicted well in advance, the concept of an incarnate angel of God thereafter placed me into the "fringe" category.

All that I've been prophesying since these early days, although once considered too far "out there" to take seriously, is now (and will be) mainstream.

During 1998 and 1999 there was no religious material whatsoever on the website, or Biblical prophecy or topics I once considered "out there" such as aliens, crop circles or conspiracy theories. Instead, the site was my best efforts at an attempt to reach the mainstream, though it never made the Wall Street Journal, Time or Barrons.

At the time I was an agnostic with atheistic leanings. I do not blame so many people from leaving me after my revealing to them that I was an actual angel in January 2000, because I TOO would have unsubscribed and called such a person a nut case!

There was a time when I wrote articles for www.gold-eagle.com for gold-bugs and those interested in the Y2K scare. Now, however, they will not even attempt to publish any of my material, because it comes from "a self-proclaimed incarnated angel and modern prophet." Unlike Biblical times when a divine prophet may have been taken seriously, this is the 21st century; most are not prepared for a true, modern prophet with divine backing. Most Christians and 99.9% of Muslims refuse to accept any kind of modern prophet, after the Bible or Quran.

You would think a true prophet would be taken seriously, but it doesn't work that way. This very fact will keep me on the "fringes" and probably out of any best-seller list when the final edition of my book is published, and I refuse to "alter the story" as one publisher recommended. For crying out loud, this is basically scripture quality, in total message!

Remember, there was a time when the Y2K gurus visited the site, including Ed Yardeni, who I had email contact with, Gary North, who was the ultimate doomsayer, with a mammoth website, Ed Yourdon, computer programmer and author, as well as senators Robert Bennet (Utah) and Chris Dodd (Connecticut), not to mention many reporters who took my message seriously and were able to spread the word through their newspapers and radio programs. Many still visit my site to see what message an angel/prophet/messenger of God has to reveal. It is always truth.

"Oh, come on, Daniel, you are resting on your laurels, based on an event which never happened! Y2K is something we all want to forget!"

The good news is that a good percentage have stood with me from the beginning, through the trials and tribulations, persecution, ridicule, glory, ups and downs, new divine revelations, etc.

Some will take seriously the Biblical injunctions that imply to take a prophet very seriously and heed his warnings. Those who disregard these warnings, visions and insights are not to be condemned, and I even invited them to unsubscribe or burn the book. It is perfectly understandable that so many did so. But more than half stayed with me.

How many of you, including mainstream politicians and economists and investors, are going to take a "self-proclaimed prophet" seriously, especially one who claims to have had visible wings? Until revealing to you the fact that I had visible wings for all to see, which I have documented as accurately as possible within the book, it is my guess that virtually all of you had never heard of the angelic ascension of a mortal, as happened to me. In fact, it is truly extremely rare. Or the concocted story of a deluded nut case!

The reason prophets of old had such a remarkable accuracy rate in their prophecies (such as the destruction of Jerusalem and Israel of old) is because everyone viewed them as crazy, did NOT listen to them, considered them a nuisance, and ultimately killed them. Those that listened to Jesus' supposed warnings to vacate Jerusalem when the sign that Jerusalem would be "surrounded by armies" and destroyed were few and far between.

They had to have FAITH in Jesus and his prophetic warnings before they could take his word for it. It was the same thing with Jeremiah and other prophets who said, "Thus saith the Lord, 'I will utterly sweep everything off the face of the planet,'" before the Babylonian captivity. Jesus did not impress everyone with a Ph.D. or his social standing. His followers had pure faith and trust in his divine message.

Unlike prophets of old, who merely said "thus saith the Lord," I give other, complimentary reasons to believe the messages and warnings and conclusions I publicly proclaim. I don't seriously expect any of you to take heed of my warnings if I merely say "thus saith the Lord" or make public a dire vision or "dream," even though it is made by an incarnate angel. I do not base any of my modern prophecies concerning WWIII or economic collapse on the Bible, or give false hope of a divine "rapture."

Rather, in the case of Y2K, I have backed up seemingly unbelievable conclusions with logic, current affairs and second and third opinions by respected truth-seeking programmers, economists, analysts or scientists.

Yes, Y2K turned out to be a non-event in the end, and those who are not enlightened to the nature of true prophecy will likewise NOT understand the lessons and meaning behind this pre-2000 situation.

Most who studied Y2K did not "panic" or do much to prepare, even if they were convinced there was to be a societal collapse. Some stored food and water and other supplies, but only a few months’ worth. A few sold everything, moved to a survivalist or safe location complete with a farmhouse with solar panels and mules, waiting for what they thought was a sure societal collapse.

It is my contention that those who took the "safe location" or survivalist route were those who already had survivalist leanings. The Y2K scare was just a trigger to get them off their duff and take action. It was a fearful time for many and at times I even scared myself silly with my own writings. As a messenger angel I no longer am afraid, as I've conquered fear, including that of a societal collapse, and the prospect of death by starvation.

This time, as this is written, we have another dire situation approaching, and the similarity to events and consequences preceding Y2K are strikingly similar.

It is Global Peak Oil.

The prophetic conclusion is nothing short of the end of civilization as we know it. Not 100 or 60 or 40 years from now, but "shortly" and certainly within THIS generation.

To most of you this is a new concept, as it was when first learning of Y2K on the Internet. Here are the similarities between Y2K computer bug and Peak Oil:

1) Widespread denial and delusion to the (seemingly) simple problem. (Ah, there's lots of oil left!)

2) Mass wishful thinking as to the solutions. (alternatives to oil)

3) Pollyanna "experts," politicians and "flat-earth" economists who dismissed Y2K and now Peak Oil.

4) A scientific, logically based and imminent societal and global crisis, with a rough time-frame as to when said crisis will manifest.

5) Mainstream public, media still in the dark.

6) Pessimistic doomsayers and survivalists aware of the impending crisis and beginning to prepare.

7) Lack of political and community preparation, because lack of macro, viable "solution" to said crisis, or blind "faith" that the free market or that alternative solutions will "come to the rescue."

8) Consensus of the "in-the-know experts" and gurus that we are facing a sure collapse and or/massive societal disruption and transformation, with no macro solution, "it's too late.”

Again, I expect 0% of my readers and subscribers to actually take my divine visions, such as Starburst 2020 seriously enough to actually take action, or absorb and come to grips with them emotionally. Chances are most of you will say,

"Wow, interesting, maybe he'll be wrong. Let's wait 10 years and see; I will not take it seriously."

Like Rodney Dangerfield, "I get no respect!" If you do take action, then I commend your faith! You will be doing what very few did with the Hebrew prophets of old.

Instead, because many of my readers have lived through Y2K, you will naturally have the initial inclination to take the "reality" and threat of Peak Oil with CAUTION. After all,

"Why prepare AGAIN for something that may turn out to be a dud? Maybe the doomsayers are wrong!"

Some of you felt duped by Y2K, and are leery of taking seriously anyone who says "doomsday" from now on, especially since people have been saying we will "run out of oil soon," ever since the first U.S. oil well was drilled. Oil is not going to "run out;" instead, we will run into a peak and decline in global production and it is fairly simple and straightforward to "predict” this.

In fact, the evidence is so plain a third grader can figure it out! This is not complex algebra or trigonometry. SO simple in fact, that it is overlooked or brushed off by MOST people. It can't be that simple, can it? Yes, supply and demand, production and consumption.

It doesn't take a Ph.D. in history or economics or political science to realize that cheap, abundant oil is the life-blood of virtually every aspect of modern civilization. Without it, society will come to an immediate halt. With a 10-15% reduction in supply (production) the economy will be crippled and prices will skyrocket. Actually, it only took a 5% reduction is supply to quadruple oil prices in the early 1970's, causing an immediate and massive U.S. recession, "stagflation," shortages and lineups at the pump.

Although this was before my time, many of my older readers will remember the oil shortages and resultant economic dislocations of the 1970's. Now, it may only be speculation, but a drop of only about 20% may be sufficient to END civilization as we know it.

Luckily, the 1970's shocks were temporary. What happens, then, when global oil production declines 3 to 5% per year, FOREVER? Again, it doesn't take the IQ of an Einstein or a rocket scientist or the wisdom of an angel to realize the magnitude and rough scenarios we can piece together, based on nothing more than logic, common sense, a sense of history, and a high-school level education or knowledge in economics, the market and human nature.

Not everyone is even aware of the rudimentary knowledge of Peak Oil, but it is my hope I can at least educate you as to the basics, which anyone with an average intelligence, open mind and a little skepticism can grasp. Yet, amazingly, due to various reasons, Peak Oil is NOT yet mainstream, or is publicly dismissed as doom-saying and survivalist/conspiracy theory, fringe type of a topic, not worthy of discussion.

I'm telling you that in the coming years Peak Oil interest will skyrocket. It's the next "new" big thing. It's only a matter of time until it hits the mainstream. Also, like in the Y2K era, those in authority in the mainstream press and politicians in a sense CANNOT come forward with the facts and reality we face, as it would "panic" the public and financial markets.

Indeed, it is the very beginning of the end of modern civilization, and there are NO large-scale solutions, beyond limited personal and small community preparation, and futures speculators wishing to get "rich" in the initial (and never to decline) spike in "sweet crude oil." The first wave of speculators and wise investors are already convinced that stocks will no longer do well, because we are entering a two-decade-long move to commodities, precious metals (for some) symbolized by scarce resources and global economic competition for oil.

This is World War Three, a global fight for dwindling resources. I have been saying this since 1998. No one took me seriously at the time. Well, we are in the early stages of this global, yet unpredictable war. The chess pieces are being moved as we speak.

Moreover, the wise "trend-setters" or contrarians to the still-hyped stock market/mutual fund markets recognize it is in decline and as many surmise, FOREVER. Never again will the Dow Jones Industrial Average reach its all-time high of 12,000, unless there is massive inflation, and total collapse in the U.S. dollar, in which case Dow 12,000 will be worthless in real terms.

It has been ten or more years since Y2K. You are older and wiser. Consider the Y2K scare and preparation as a learning lesson and precursor to the real "main event." If you were a Y2K-knowledgeable preparer, and had the urge to evangelize the message, began a "Cassandra project" of community awareness, or spread the word as to the seriousness of Y2K, you faced many hurdles, denial, wishful thinking, that something so simple was so serious, and that so few took it seriously. It's time to dust off those skills you learned once again.

Or, if you are new to my book, this will be a new endeavor to you. Once educated, you may have the urge to "tell the world!" Some will become depressed that no one takes their preaching "about this oil doom" seriously, and many will unfortunately remain in denial, until gasoline, reaches $10 per gallon, which it will in due time and it will become necessary to retrofit the entire nation's gas pumps to read beyond $10 a gallon. Like Y2K! They are missing an abundance of an extra "0!"

By the time gas reaches $10 a gallon, in real, 2010 dollars, the economy will have collapsed, and the gas companies will be crippled. Where will they come up with the capital to replace the entire nation's otherwise perfectly good pumps? It will be interesting to see.

I hope the Y2K scare and your knowledge of the issue gave you thick skin and lessons learned as to what happens when you attempt to "enlighten" your friends, family, and neighbors to an imminent and serious (but new and unknown) problem where awareness and collective action and community preparation are important. This is why many took the survivalist route during Y2K: they knew that,

A) no one but a few would ever take the problem seriously enough, including loved ones; therefore they needed to go it alone and "get out of Dodge City," or

B) knowing that your neighbors can make or break you in a crisis, engaged in alarmist scare-mongering with the hopes that someone would actually listen and prepare. During Y2K there were many successful community preparation plans started by many local neighborhoods, including police and fire departments, and largely out of public view. The U.S. military was also prepared for potential disruptions.

By the time the survivalists had prepared, and those who were going to "withdraw their money from the bank" already did so, it seemed that government and corporations had solved the bulk of the problem by throwing money and programmers at it. By about April of 1999 interest in Y2K had dropped off and people stopped preparing; they listened to the overwhelming good news that the "Y2K bug was squashed." The Y2K computer bug was a REAL and serious problem, with real solutions. Peak Oil, on the other hand, has no real, economically viable or collective solution, at a large-scale, MACRO level. It's now, "strategically place the chess pieces, lock and load." (Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.)

As the opening paragraph to http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net sensationally proclaims:

"Dear Reader,

"Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse Bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil."

Peak oil is not really new to me. It is something at a young age I "knew" was to occur in my lifetime but not, in the early 90's, "imminent." I had not written about it publicly until 2005, because it didn't seem like an immediate problem to worry about.

Most people, while acknowledging it is a serious and approaching problem, assume that it is something in the long and distant future, something their children or grandchildren will one day have to “deal with.”

However, I'm telling you that the issue is one of great concern for you and your community's and nation's well-being, and that we are not getting the truth from the mainstream as to the magnitude, lack of viable "solutions" at a macro level (martial law is their solution) and imminence of the crisis.

It may be sensationalistic to say that modern civilization is on the verge of total collapse, financially, economically, historically, nationally and internationally. Yet these are the prophetic warnings I make boldly, but if it were just me saying it, then no one would listen. I've studied – with concentration, objectively, and absorbing as many facts as my brain could discern – the recent developments of the "bell curve" on oil depletion for the first time since my fateful thesis on resource depletion back in high school.

In fact, in World Issues 300, which I elected when returning to high school in 1992, receiving the highest score in the class at the end of the year, I wrote a lengthy thesis based on the global depletion of resources and that in roughly a generation, the "party would be over" for modern civilization. So in a sense I was a doomsaying prophet since high school age.

But I never said or felt that it was "imminent," just inevitable; after all, industrial society is based on finite oil and resources and at the time I intuitively "knew" we had it too good for our own good and that our "modern" society, when one looked at the BIG picture and long term, was merely to be a blip – a hiccup in the long course of history.

But for years this topic left my mind until recently, when I began researching the issue, objectively, with hopes of coming to the truth: was it really imminent, what was the evidence and scientific facts, how did it fit in with my newfound identity as a prophet and how did it relate to divine visions thus far received? What were the "alternatives to oil?" Is any real solution available? Or is the total collapse of civilization imminent and inevitable, including the inevitable collapse of the modern division of labor, banking system and even electrical power grid?

I was able to bypass the initial denial that seizes many new to the subject. I never had to be kicked in the butt and shocked into the reality that the media, flat-earth economists, and politicians in glossed-over sound bites were promising "new" discoveries, nor did I have faith in the "invisible hand" of the market or technology coming to the rescue in the nick of time for us to ride happily into this "promised land" of a new era of low pollution, efficiency and never-ending growth! Conservation!

However, because I could never be fooled into such delusions, even in 1992 as a high school student, it seems that MOST who come across Peak Oil for the first time are psychologically brainwashed emotionally and intellectually that a crash will be averted; that alternatives, technology and good old "American Ingenuity" and a slew of "don't worry, be happy" solutions by scientists and government will be implemented. After all "they" (whoever "they" are) know what they are doing.

It is beyond the scope of the book to discuss, in depth, the reality of the so-called alternatives to oil. But it is remarkable the lengths so many are willing to go through to EMOTIONALLY delude themselves into believing, however improbably, indeed, impossibly, that oil will ever be "replaced" on the grand scale required to keep our 30-billion-barrel-per-year global economy functioning, let alone "growing" as in the era of cheap oil.

We live in the last stage of an era of materialistic, utopian fantasy. Faith in the intelligent, rational scientist has been taken over as the "god" of the modern age. Many have FAITH, not in a Creator, but in technology to solve all problems. And the Fed chairman will solve all economic problems!

Instead of dealing with myth and hyperbole, wishful thinking, etc. I'm giving you cold, hard facts. It is beyond the scope of the book to give all the reasons why there is absolutely NO mass alternative to cheap oil at a MACRO level (or even expensive oil, for that matter), PERIOD.

The following are sometimes touted as "promising" alternatives, to oil; note that ALL they can only provide is a minuscule fraction of what our global economy requires to function and grow and while many of these will indeed be "growth" industries and technologies as prices for oil rise as Peak is reached, there is no energy product on earth that can match the energy density, cost, portability, versatility, or infrastructure incorporation of oil, ever.

Even massive research, implementation, and mass production of a combination of all these "new" alternatives to a maximum degree that is politically, technologically, and economically possible, even extremely optimistically, along with massive new drilling and exploratory searches for new fields and running existing fields, would only soften the impact of Peak Oil, or delay it a measly two years or so.

Any way you look at it, we are faced with a destiny of industrial societal collapse that will make the Great Depression look like the "good old days." If you are in doubt about the logistics, economics and technological viability to these so called "alternatives" to oil you can listen to utopian wishful thinking, or you can get the facts. See this page:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/AlternativesToOil.html. Please read and kill your denial and wishful thinking.

If you are old enough to remember the oil shocks of the 70's, you will remember the numerous books and warnings of pessimistic doomsayers declaring that we were on the verge of oil depletion. For example, there were the infamous "Club of Rome" conclusions that showed many bell curves on energy and resource depletion, population growth and modern society.

While many of their conclusions and data seemed attractive in the grim 1970's, the 1980's and 1990's came and went, oil prices collapsed, and the attitudes of the early, mid and late 90's mirrored the peaceful and very prosperous boom and bubble, this time with technology being integrated into corporations and government, and Silicon Valley making overnight multimillionaires in the dot-com bubble.

The doomsayers were largely ignored as the stock market multiplied; oil and gold remained low. Many at the time were predicting Dow 100,000, and a "New Economy" driven by innovation and computer technology. The Clinton Administration was projecting never-ending budget surpluses as far as the eye could see. This was all foolish, of course, as the stock market tanked beginning in 2000, with the NASDAQ bubble taking the lead. Surpluses turned to record budget deficits.

The terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001 created a new paradigm, in that even though they killed fewer than 3000 people (minuscule), they awoke the great bear of the military of the United States. Soon the U.S. military was on the move in the newly declared (and never-ending) "war on terror" which in slight conspiracy-theory style, was actually a new and global movement to strategically position itself where oil was not yet in terminal decline: the Middle East.

They, of course, will never say directly it is for oil; instead the public word is to "liberate" and spread democracy in a war against tyranny. And the public buys it, hook, line and sinker! There are two types of media:

1) one for the gullible and impressionable "sheeple" and,

2) the other "alternatives," such as analysts and blogs and opinions on the Internet.

This pessimism of the 1970's and the warning of the "limits to growth" WAS based on scientific reality and commonsense logic in that it was to occur EVENTUALLY, but those doom-and-gloomers of the 1970's were wrong at the time because they based their conclusions on emotion, the politics and fear of the time, and NOT on the true SCIENTIFIC reality of "known reserves," geologic reality, oil depletion rates, production rates and future demand, as well as new and improved drilling techniques as well as a drop in demand due to major conservation efforts and industry-wide efficiency efforts and improved recovery of crude due to some impressive technological breakthroughs in the industry in the 80's.

For the above reasons many people nowadays dismiss those has-beens.

"We've heard it all before! Begone, O doomsayer!"

Even within the Peak Oil community there are many who have cried "wolf" and given premature estimates on the TIMING of when Peak Oil would be reached. It should be noted that Peak Oil is a very solid reality, not "theory."

It has been factually PROVEN over and over again, and currently MOST countries outside of a handful of Middle Eastern countries are in terminal decline, as GLOBAL oil will also be in unavoidable decline in production in the coming few short years. This is a fact you must accept and come to grips with; again this is not opinion, but basic math based on the best available (untainted and unexaggerated) proven reserves, total amount produced thus far since oil production and consumption began and quantity remaining.

Again, nothing will ever replace oil on a large scale, and this includes the hyped promising oil shale and tar sands of North America, drilling in the ANWAR or North Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Caspian Sea, or increased exports from Russia. This increased supply that undoubtedly will be tapped to the maximum degree possible when oil reaches $200 a barrel will do nothing more than make a minuscule dent in the big picture.

Even though I was only a teen in the early 80's, I remember the newfound optimism of Reagan's "morning in America" piped into my Canadian TV set, and I personally absorbed everything American. (I've lived in the U.S. since 1995 and never turned back.) The oil crises were still fresh in everybody's mind, and a few predicted an extrapolation based on fears and trends of the time. This is typical for those caught up into short-term societal trends. The trend-meisters of the late 70's and early 80's were WRONG.

Like fantasies of Dow 50,000 or even 100,000 that many books propagate during a euphoric boom as the late 1990's, a pessimistic trend has a tendency also be assessed and extrapolated. If everyone is bearish and pessimistic, it's often a good idea to be a contrarian and do the opposite. In 1982 the Dow was below 1000; interest rates and oil and gold and inflation were skyrocketing. The construction industry came to a temporary halt.Those who invested in the stock market at that time would do well in the coming decade or two.

No one likes a pessimist or doomsayer. Ever since I was incarnated in the present life, it was destined I would be a prophet, and not one that says "peace" when there is no peace, nor “prosperity” when economic collapse is around the corner. Instead I give you hard-core truth as best as I can, logic, reason, common sense, lessons learned and divine insight. Remember that true prophets and angels appear just before a crisis and are obliged to give public warning about the said crisis approaching.

This is why I am presenting Peak Oil to you at this juncture: based on the best scientific conclusion and evidence, Peak Oil has either,

A) Arrived and we are now at a global plateau in production, or

B) Darn close, and will peak within the next few years.

Once peak is reached, global production can be expected (conservatively) to go into terminal decline, by 2 - 3% per year, while demand continues to rise, resulting in spiraling oil and gas prices, with dire consequences for the economy and civilization.

There will be oil competition resulting in military conflicts. It is said all wars are based to one degree or another on natural resources. It could be land, food supply, or in the modern era, available reserves of oil. It is black gold. The days of easy discovery made in the back yard, as in the Beverly Hillbillies TV program, making the family multimillionaires, are long gone.

Those new to the issue of Peak Oil are surprised to learn that while there are TECHNICALLY viable alternatives to oil, there are NO macro and economically viable alternatives to the INEVITABLE and PERMANANT shortfall in global oil production supplies. They are also shocked to learn that all the hype of "alternative fuels" such as biodiesel and the "hydrogen economy," windmill or solar energy etc., are just illusions bought into by the mainstream press, politicians and sheeple, most of whom fail to look at the big picture. It is the utopian fantasy perpetuated by the "don't worry, be happy" culture we belong to.

I do not want you to be an uninformed member of the sheeple believing in the spin, hype, and false promises of alternative solutions, blind faith and lack of concern by classical economists – "the market is a miracle and will solve everything," so says Adam Smith – and EMOTIONAL hope for the extrapolation of technological advances and/or science of the past few generations into the foreseeable, long-term future.

"We transitioned from horses to cars just fine, so will we evolve into new and exciting oil alternatives!"

"They" – the scientists, Federal Reserve Chairman, stock markets and analysts are not worried; "they" will solve all our problems! Just adjust interest rates a little bit, increase liquidity, and voilà, problem solved!

I'm telling you, after rationally and logically studying the scope of the Peak Oil crisis at length, and logically studying everything from nuclear energy, coal, tar sands, oil shale, ANWAR, Caspian Sea deposits, new drilling alternatives, hydrogen, ethanol and biodiesel fuel, solar panels, wind turbines, etc., etc., etc., that there are NO alternatives to cheap oil, or oil at ANY price for that matter.

All that the much hyped "alternatives" can do, even when the price of oil rises to $400 a barrel, is merely make at most a tiny dent in replacement of oil, of which we consume a global 84 MILLION gallons per day, just to meet the daily functions of modern life in the industrialized nations and the U.S. uses ¼ of the world's total. Take the word of someone who has studied the facts: there is nothing even close to supplying the energy needs after global production begins its INEVITABLE decline, PERIOD.

The immediate reaction of the typical person is denial, when hearing the facts. "Oh, technology will solve the problem" or, "the market will take care of it; when oil reaches a certain price level, 'they' will find it economical to mass implement alternatives."

Again, this is what most people want to believe. They don't want cold, hard scientific facts and economic reality; they want promises and hype and desperately do not want to blindly "believe" we are facing a collapse of society and civilization itself. We don't want to hear bad news. We as a culture are addicted to "happiness." The truth is too hard for most people to emotionally accept.

My handle on the Internet used to be "truthfinder." For the record, I have found glimpses of absolute personal truth, much of which is also macro-truth, designed to be shared publicly. Some people are "truth seekers," but I go one step further ... I need to FIND truth.

I always say, "Beware of anyone who claims to know absolute truth," and I still say that even though yours truly is an incarnate angel; I cannot possibly know the ABSOLUTE truth and everything about the afterlife, the truth about God in his/her entirety, all about the future, etc. It should be noted that sincerity and "truth-telling" are different than knowing what is true. I love the truth, and of course have always told the truth to readers; you will never find me in a lie, or contradicting myself to any significant degree. I consider fiction and fantasy to be in a sense LIES, and you will never find me writing fiction.

Thanks to the Internet there are many devoted to the truth, although not mainstream, and they can be considered "contrarians." They read between the lines, check facts and figures and even, as in the case of Peak Oil, base their conclusions on hard data and scientific consensus, instead of buying into the delusion perpetuated by classical economists, politicians or mainstream media. Many are devoted to finding the truth, and many I respect and will recommend from time to time.

The Internet is also full of much nonsense, opinions, and in many cases lies. While I'm not into "conspiracy theories," the Internet is also full of them and in the realm of Peak Oil, there is no shortage of conspiracy theorists. I find their arguments and ideas interesting, but not to be taken too seriously, in general.

That is why it takes discernment and a grain of salt, to sift through the data and conclusions of experts in the field and attempt to "sum it all up" into one basic package of immutable and logical morsels of written truth. Writing is a medium of communication that, while not perfect at, I prefer to communicate in; in person I do not make a good verbal communicator, as I become tongue-tied and shy. Like Paul and Moses, I am slow of speech.

The most effective means of communication is telepathic, which I had to an astonishing degree, especially in the year 2000. In the spirit realm there is no hiding, lying, or miscommunication; it is direct, obvious and clear, fast and efficient. It is true that many refuse to go into the Light after death and remain in the outer darkness for long periods, because they are afraid to show themselves in full, naked exposure; they KNOW that their pathological, lying nature will be seen, and they get ashamed. They may wind up in a "purgatory" region among other pathological liars, all lying to each other.

We learned and realized during the Y2K scare that we cannot trust the mainstream media and politicians (intended to sooth the masses with the cult of celebrity, FEAR, entertainment, diversions and manufactured crises, such as Social Security). The mantra during Y2K of "prepare for a weekend storm" was designed purely to placate the masses, get them to keep their money in the bank and avoid panic in general.

Peak Oil and the conclusions it reaches are too extreme for 98% of the population to emotionally accept and this will likely remain so until oil is permanently logged in the $200 to $400 price range – in other words, until they are paying $10 to $20 a gallon for their soon-to-be worthless SUVs, the U.S. dollar (currently petrodollars) collapses, the stock market utterly collapses, with extremely high unemployment and interest rates and inflation, and precipitous decline in global shipping and trade and rise in per capita food prices.

Until those days arrive, they will "fiddle while Rome burns" or put their hands over their heads and say, "I can't hear you!" The band will be playing while the Titanic is sinking. (Remember, there is only a limited quantity of lifeboats!)

Or in the case of A.D. 68 to A.D. 70 Jerusalem, ignore the prophet's warnings and stay inside the walls of the city while it is besieged, the population starved to death or killed.

Until then, people will remain in denial. You, on the other hand, have FOREKNOWLEDGE, via the alternative media on the Internet, in the hard-to-accept conclusion that modern CIVILIZATION itself will imminently come to a permanent end. Never before in history have so many had access to so much knowledge as we now have on the Internet. The writing is on the wall. We are in the calm before the storm.

As a truth-FINDER, I'm telling you that Peak Oil is real, and that you must do something to prepare, either spiritually, psychologically, or materially. If you are content to die swiftly in the coming collapse, then all power to you. It is not my goal to scare you into suicidal thoughts. As angels often have to say,

“Do not be afraid!”

Because this conclusion is seemingly so extreme, one will initially engage in uninformed wishful thinking.

"Well, once prices are high enough, oil shale and biodiesel will take over. We might go through a slump, but we will transition just fine."

This is the mindset of a good percentage of the people in society. The situation is further exacerbated by detractors of the reality of Peak Oil, who give a false, "everything is fine" mantra. When you actually study Peak Oil you will ultimately come to grips with the fact that there is NO SOLUTION. Now, Of COURSE they will drill more and attempt greater investment in alternatives such as biodiesel when oil prices rise sufficiently.

But most people are under the naive delusion that it will somehow replace, EN MASSE, cheap oil. This is impossible. All of the touted alternatives hyped by politicians and media and certain scientists can logistically only provide a tiny fraction of what crude oil produces. Besides, where would we get the investment capital to invest in, research and implement on a mass scale all these emotionally appealing yet logistically and economically unviable "alternatives" to oil when the economy collapses with crude at $200 to $400 a barrel?

We are facing an imminent collapse of the American and global economy due to Peak Oil, and unlike the 70's oil shocks, this will be merely the onset of a new PERMANANT condition.

As a speculative but not divinely exact scenario, if Peak Oil occurs in the coming few years, or is now upon us as I write this in early 2010, expect Great Depression-like unemployment and bankruptcies and debt default with early 80's-like inflation and interest rates from (approximately) 2012 to 2020. This is a best-case scenario WITH ideal market incentives to implement all known technologies, oil alternatives, new exploration and full extraction of existing world oil fields, including opening up capped oil wells, full, coordinated and worldwide conservation efforts, and global reduction in demand through all means, including a rise in interest rates to reduce demand.

Because of market reactions, expect panic in the oil markets relatively soon after peak becomes obvious, with an unprecedented rise in oil prices, as nations, now shocked into the reality of Peak Oil (as most will not take it seriously until it's too late) hoard their dwindling supplies from the market and futures traders speculate in panic at the now obvious situation. Peak Oil gurus will be interviewed, and anyone who has prepared for the coming inevitable collapse will begin making the headlines.

You will hear of "those fear-mongers" trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy, with a formal ridicule of survivalists, just as happened during the Y2K scare. It's going to happen again, my friends! Shoot the messenger! (I'm used to it!)

Conservatives will blame liberals; liberals will blame conservatives. People will be blaming "insurgents and terrorists" in Arab countries and those "rag heads" will be hated. Muslim opinion will reach a new low in America and hate will reach a new high in the coming years. False politicians, even those who know the mathematical truth behind Peak Oil, will say, "don't panic, the good old days of $1 gasoline are around the corner." Again.

But there's no way the assurances of the classical economists, fantasy-mongers of the Old Order, and blind and false politicians will bring the price of oil down. Also no amount of prayer will re-fill the oil fields. The blame game will be played with many hostile words and accusations. The right-wing hate-mongers will idiotically call for nuclear missiles aimed at Makkah unless the price of oil comes down. Leftist anarchists and their supporters or sympathizers will blame "big oil companies" and fascist right-wing neo-cons and Christians.

It is wise to expect massive global military geopolitical interventions to secure oil fields. Nations will fall and be propped up. The United States of America, already strategically engaged in the Middle East, knowing its days as a global power are numbered (after all, the great "Satan" knows his time is short, haha) will likely seize oil fields (in the name of freedom from tyranny, Middle East "freedom" and the war on terrorism, for instance) in a futile attempt to keep the American way of life afloat.

There will be, even at this time, denial that the reality of Peak Oil is upon us as a new, permanent condition. At present the truth of Peak Oil is at the first stage all truth goes through, "ridicule." Then comes "violently attacked," and eventually it will become "self-evident." By that time the economy will have financially collapsed, despair will have set in, urban and suburban properties will have collapsed in demand and value.

The powers that be will attempt to hold on to whatever financial power they have remaining. In the coming years the lifestyle enjoyed by 90% of the middle and lower middle class in America will be available only to the top, upper, super-rich 1%. What we consider "needs" and rights in this presently affluent society will become luxuries afforded only by those that prepared, or diversified and held on to some of their wealth.

Remember that in the West and the good old U.S. of A., especially since World War II, we have ridden the greatest level of affluence this world has ever seen. It was, in the background, slaked, fueled and manufactured by the closest thing this world has ever seen to "free energy."

We used the stored carbon-based deposits of ancient life from millions of years ago, all in the course of a handful of generations. Simultaneously we invented and distributed electric power, which by the early 20th century, reached most homes in the West. New forms of communication emerged, including radio, telephone, television, and now computers on a mass scale, all interconnected by the Internet, which only really took off starting in 1995. It is my optimistic view that remnants of the Internet will survive Peak Oil, at least for a while, in some third world nations.

As civilization, in its twilight, suffers from the global oil peak and shortages, global trade will collapse, as the ships run out of fuel as supplies collapse and become too expensive, exporters such as Japan and China stop manufacturing for lack of oil-based plastics and fuels for manufacturing processes and fuel stops for the diesel trucks coming to and from Wal-Mart (which as I write is an economic powerhouse, perceived as invincible) and will soon go bankrupt due to lack of purchasing power from the masses when unemployment, massive mortgage and consumer debt-bubble default becomes a reality.

Depending on when exactly peak is reached, and how financial markets react, and the massive debt pyramid implodes, expect unemployment to reach at least 25% to 50% in the latter stages of collapse.

Most airlines, due to lack of jet fuel and radically increased ticket prices, unable to fly, will go soon go bankrupt. Expect only limited flights for the affluent – when fuel is available. Most flights and planes will be grounded, long term. Moreover, lack of demand from those unable to drive to the airport due to lack of fuel and severe curtailing of tourist and layman travel due to a generally collapsing economy permanently puts an end to the tourism industry. As cities, Las Vegas and Orlando will collapse in the early stages. Hotels and car rental agencies will go bankrupt EN MASSE, nationwide.

Because of severe shortages, outrageous gasoline prices and long lines, forcing possible government rationing, SUVs and hybrid vehicles alike will be unable to make the commute to work from the suburbs, the child of post-WWII affluence and residence of middle-class America, and their inevitable decline in value (even though in a record price bubble just a few year ago depreciates to near zero.)

Suburban homes will catastrophically decline in value, as their owners abandon them, and the banks foreclose as personal bankruptcies skyrocket to levels not seen since the 1930's Depression. There will be a cascading debt collapse in the U.S., reducing the foreign-owned consumer debt to default, which the last remnants of the central banks will attempt to "pay off" with fiat money, reducing most of the banking system and US dollar to rubble.

As the trucks full of food run out of fuel and stop pulling into Albertson’s and Safeway and Winn-Dixie nationwide, some of which used to travel hundreds of miles with produce from Latin America or wine from France, distribution centers and warehouses close, since no one is able to get gasoline to go to work, even in car pools. Public transportation will reach overload levels as people are forced to leave their cars at home.

Expect hoarding from initial several days worth of existing stocks of food from all the supermarkets, sky-rocketing prices when available, and eventually rationing in the cities as governments, with the aid of the military, dole out food to the now hungry and desperate masses.

Many, now trapped in the suburbs, may make a bike trek or walk into the inner city soup lines to eat and feed their family. The stock market will not be open in this situation, since trading will come to a halt when the banking system freezes, possibly under emergency executive order, and stock brokers are unable to make it to work as the New York, Chicago, London and Tokyo markets close down.

There may or may not be bank runs initially, but the collapse of the U.S. PETRODOLLAR to near-worthless levels may discourage any runs on cash. But there will be a medium of exchange, until the system breaks down totally.

Once plentiful croplands and the agribusinesses that run them, within a couple of seasons, depending on how sudden and severely Peak Oil hits, will run out of oil and natural gas based fertilizer and pesticides and they cannot obtain fuel to run the combines and tractors.

The railroads, which supply the bulk of oil-based chemicals to refineries and factories run out of diesel fuel and will go bankrupt. (If the train operators are even able to get work in their SUVs.) The grains normally hauled to processing plants will halt in their tracks. If grains are available, by some miracle, they will not be able to be transferred and processed to food manufacturing plants, which will run out of packaging supplies as the division of labor shuts down and people are unable to drive to work. Eventually plants nationwide will no longer be able to function, assuming the still-functioning plants have a functioning banking system to pay their now unreliable workers.

Livestock will live, aging, in the pastures, peacefully grazing or in stockades eating the last remnants of oats and barley and straw. There will be no diesel-powered trucks to pick them up and bring them to be slaughtered and processed by slaughterhouse workers unable to find fuel to make it to work. If they hitch a ride to work, within a few weeks they will realize they cannot cash their checks or deposit them at the ATMs, which have "out of order" messages displayed on the screen.

Eggs will continue to be hatched in farms, but no trucks will show up to haul them to the market. Cows will still give milk, but the distribution system will shut down.

Most fast food restaurants will go bankrupt within a short time as hamburger patties, buns and fries, once reliably shipped for hundreds of miles with cheap diesel fuel, becomes spotty or unavailable as thousands and thousands of trucks nationwide, stranded on highways and miles from distribution centers, become newly unavailable. The drivers of the trucks, frustrated by the lack of fuel at gas stations, or the inability of their credit cards to work at truck stops due to a frozen banking system and means of payment, begin abandoning their trucks and hitchhiking home to take care of their family.

A few loners will sleep in the back of their trucks, listening to chaotic and panicky chatter on the CB radio; they will notice many deserted cars riddling the once-busy interstate highway, with the occasional car full of hitchhikers whizzing by, interspersed with a few Highway Patrol officers speeding by, sirens blaring.

In addition, the inability of low-wage workers to arrive to work by car or now increasingly by rationed and overcrowded public transportation, will shut down restaurants, at least those that have not yet closed down by sharply decreased demand from a retrenching public for such luxuries as "fast food."

Many will ride out this crisis, eating old canned foods from the pantry and cooking up food from the freezer. They will be on the telephone calling loved ones, watching in horror at the unfolding global and national crisis on CNN, Fox News or CBC or the BBC, by frazzled reporters stuck at work for days at a time, in New York City or Atlanta. Many media stations will, one by one, be going off the air, with reruns, some with a marquee scroll of the Emergency Broadcast System broadcasting continuously.

The electrical power grid is the hallmark of modern industrial civilization. Without it, it all ends and nothing can soon exist or function without it. The good news is that electricity is either supplied by coal, Hydro, natural gas or nuclear power, with a tiny fraction by solar or wind. But it depends on an oil-supported infrastructure, complex division of labor and banking system, with workers willing and able to drive to work, expecting to get paid, assuming they have to fuel to make it to work. It takes oil to process, mine and ship coal.

As the collapse of Peak Oil advances, after the initial shocks and initial economic collapse and dislocations, there will be regional blackouts and brownouts with attempts to reroute available power to the major metropolitan population centers, filled with hungry and now unemployed citizens and families standing in food and water lines.

If they can withstand the rioting and civil disturbances unable to be quelled by the overstretched military, which has by now seized oil supplies and distribution choke-neck holds internationally, nationally and locally, under a state of FEMA-induced emergency; the military will be given as much access and power necessary to commandeer any stockpiles to keep the Hummers running and transport planes operational.

Martial Law, along with full arrest powers, distribution of water to urban centers will be under full implementation, state by state and city by city, but because the military and volunteers and relief workers are limited in resources, only a handful of cities will be attended to; this will only be temporary, and not a long-term solution. No national police state or concentration camps will be politically or economically viable; under the stress of a nationwide state of emergency and halted oil supplies, this "solution" will last months, at best.

Workers, unable to make it to work to maintain and/or repair the power grid due to lack of fuel for their cars, most coming from the suburbs, or to get paid due to a frozen banking system, will, after a few weeks, in hunger, stay home to protect their children and loved ones from the ensuing civil chaos. Many will die protecting their homes, and many will kill protecting their homes. The overwhelmed police departments will not be able to respond to the onslaught of 911 calls. Hospitals will ration the influx of patients, if the ambulances can obtain fuel.

The overstretched and now long-term unpaid police and military will be attempting to maintain order, being the last in the food chain in individuals to maintain order - a new and frightening world situation. Many will give up and protect their families, realizing that it is too overwhelming a situation even for the most die-hard, dedicated, selfless public servant.

As they are no longer paid due to a collapsed financial system, spotty and unreliable food for themselves, and inadequate fuel for their cars, they will go home to protect their families and be with them in this time of crisis. The power grid, much of it on automation, will begin systematically breaking down, until, nationwide, in most industrialized nations, including in once powerful and affluent America, it will once and for all go down. Within a short time, there will be no phone lines, Internet, 911, ambulances, or running water, no heat, no air conditioning, no refrigeration. Once it goes down, for days, or weeks, it will stay down, never to return.

Then the die-off begins.

If it is in the middle of winter the heat will promptly shut down, and within hours countless people will be stranded in these dark cities huddled with fear with loved ones for what little warmth remains.

Some will, after days of living and sleeping in scarves and parkas, die of hypothermia; some will foolishly create small campfires out of books, encyclopedias, Bibles, Qurans and wood torn from their walls. Some families will die horribly from smoke inhalation and houses burned to the ground, with no oil-powered fire trucks to arrive and extinguish the blaze.

Within a few days, dehydration, as the water supply is cut off, begins to set in, as people drink from their toilet water tanks and bowls.

Hunger, now universal, begins to take over, as the days of well-stocked supermarkets ends. Within a few weeks, very hungry and thirsty survivors, by the millions, will roam the streets, in a daze, desperately scrounging for old scraps of food or uncontaminated water or eating dirty road ice and snow.

They will begin doing the ultimate survivalist behavior of cannibalism – an unimaginable undertaking by a society only recently well-fed and obese, but a welcome relief to the gnawing hunger pangs, with tempting availability of millions of soon-to-be-rotting human corpses.

Disease further thins the remaining population, who, though logistically trapped in the cities and suburbs, gather a few belongings and dust off the old mountain bike hanging up in the garage, bike or walk to close-by rural farms, depending on the location of the country, and seek out self-sufficient farmers, the survivalists who made public their stores of food, orange groves like in Florida or California, to find a little something to eat or steal before they die.

Those who have a tank-full of gas or who gather in desperate and marauding gangs armed to the teeth will roam the countryside, until they themselves run out of all fuel. In a relatively brief time, most desert cities such as Las Vegas or Phoenix will become a barren wasteland of dehydrated corpses.

In a relatively short time, a good percentage of the American and/or Western world's population will have died in a season. As the spring thaw begins weeks or months later in northern regions, including places like Winnipeg, Manitoba, or Grand Forks, North Dakota, decomposing by the millions, corpses giving off plague-like diseases will kill many more of the survivors. There will be no oil-powered bulldozers to push the corpses by the millions into mass graves worldwide.

By now, this eerie landscape, now silent of planes overhead, the roar of rush-hour traffic, the once hectic and noisy orders of burgers at fast food restaurants and the noise of once buzzing stock markets in downtown Manhattan or London or Tokyo, has, in a relatively brief period of time, become a relic of a time survivors of the distant future will look upon with resentment and disgust as a disgraceful era.

They will sift through the remnants of dusty libraries, built and stocked with abundant knowledge and science of the brief but now bygone industrial and technological age – assuming the books were not used as campfire fuel to keep warm – looking for methods on how to grow food locally and organically, with whatever livestock is remaining in scattered farms.

Survivors of the Great Collapse and die-off will one by one gather into small groups, then eventually into tribes of 50 to 200 people. In the early years the life expectancy will be very low, with malnutrition and disease rampant, but they will adapt to these new and unavoidable conditions. There will be no remaining banking system, national government, constitution, national military, stock market, retirement or pension plans, television, radio, electricity or running water.

They will gather in communal tribal groups, intent on basic survival, living at levels we would presently consider as indigent as many primitive Third World nations once were, with no toothbrushes, razors to shave with, toilet paper, running water, electricity or phone system.

They will at first use telephone books and Bibles for toilet paper, until they run out. Rudimentary health care will be learned by a few from the aging libraries and for medicines some will grow herbs. They will use whatever tools and relics of the Industrial Age they can find as they scrounge mechanic's shops and abandoned garages of suburban homes, some of which contain a few aging skeletons, which they will nonchalantly bypass and emotionally block out. These are the true survivors of the Great Collapse.

It is estimated that without fossil fuel consumption, the earth can support only one to two billion people.

This generation will have just survived something without precedent in recorded human history. In their groups as the years move on and a local sense of community develops and a meager sense of season-to-season stability has been reached, there shall develop a respect for nature, with a true spirituality.

Hardened by witnessing great death, collapse and transformation of civilization, the end of the age of oil and mass fossil fuel consumption, the survivors will be among the wisest and most spiritually advanced people the world has ever seen. They will work in co-operative, sharing and collectively self-sufficient communities.

They will create music and learn to play "old" instruments left over from the Industrial Age: trumpets, violins, guitars, and even a grand piano, collecting dust like an artifact in a nearby suburban home. They will learn from old books. The great and glorious cities and skyscrapers will stand like sentinels, dark, lifeless, quiet and forever uninhabited.

Language will evolve and be maintained and preserved by writings of the prior age. Nation-states and mass warfare will become a thing of the past as trade becomes localized. Many who died in the Great Collapse but died with negative karma, or those who wish to complete their incarnations to attain spiritual enlightenment will do so in succeeding generations. But logistically, because the world was so rapidly depopulated, only a few will be allowed to incarnate.

Most of the population of this planet earth who have never been on the Internet, or do not have electricity, never dreamed of owning a car, and in many cases even a bicycle, will tend to their rice and potato crops, or chickens, or mule-drawn plow, tilling the soil, or in an old wooden boat, for a daily catch of fish to market for the local community and village. Many in this category will continue working, unfazed in their daily labors, never being reached by the news of what happened to a significant portion of the population of the world, the Western World, and America, the great global power of the 20th and early 21st century.

This farmer or fisherman may have, in days gone by, wanted to immigrate to this legendary country, in search of a visa to work in the land of opportunity. But the planes have stopped flying, the local American Embassy in town has been abandoned, and the Hollywood movies have stopped coming to his local theater, where he used to spend 50 cents to watch a pirated copy of Star Wars, or Raiders of the Lost Ark.

Through messengers and future travelers, tribes will peacefully come into contact with each other, and spread legends and horror stories by word of mouth, of a great and gloriously affluent and technically advanced civilization; many will talk of its greed and short-sightedness and waste, but be awestruck by its achievements.

They will build on technologies already existing, build a spiritual life led by swamis, gurus, shamans, and masters and cultivate collective child-rearing and advanced spiritual knowledge. Bibles will still exist, as will copies of the Quran. There will be no more paper to write on, and writing materials, like a lowly pencil or pen, which requires a highly complex division of labor, will quickly be used up, as will all blank sheets of paper available in the office copy machines and libraries of abandoned cities.

This is my scenario and “hope” for the long-term future, after the Great Collapse, based on the Starburst 2020 vision given to me, where I was transported to the year 2092, and the coming collapse of modern civilization itself, which as you can see with Peak Oil, is imminent.

Sounds like science fiction doesn't it? Is this scenario too pessimistic for the average reader? I'm telling you that while the "exact details" of this hypothetical scenario are unlikely, word for exact word, it is exactly what we face – in a few years down the road, even imminently. In fact, this is probably the EASIEST “prediction” I’ve ever had to make as a prophet. It is not a question of “if,” but “when.”

The eventual shut down of ALL power grids, world-wide. This will and must happen.

The reaction of most of you, as in the Y2K era, is denial, wishful thinking, inaction ("well, sounds convincing, but I'll wait and see") or “shoot the messenger.” It is my hope that most of you are beyond "shooting the messenger." You all know that the test of a prophet is "you will know them by their fruits." Be suspect of people who have ulterior motives, such as profit alone.

This was true during the era of Y2K. Some sold many books, or tried to tie it into Biblical prophecy or hopes of "a rapture." Peak Oil has nothing to do with Biblical prophecy or a rapture. And while some will sell possibly millions of books when Peak Oil hits the mainstream, it has never been my motive to sell books thereby "getting rich."

In fact because of the far-out nature of my book and message, I have not actively sought out an agent to publish in a mainstream publisher. It would be a pleasant surprise if I ever sold enough books to recoup the time DONATED to writing the website and book. The money would be put to charitable use only. And what if I DID use it for personal use, hypothetically? Would it be wrong for a prophet to use the proceeds to SURVIVE? Indeed, I am prophesying that only a very small number will ever read my book, website, and know that this "Daniel" – who was immortalized and now read around the globe in the Christian "Holy Bible" and studied to death by millions of prophecy scholars – has ever returned as an incarnate angel in the early 21st century.

As you know and I've said before, being a true prophet is not personally profitable, which is why I still live well below the poverty line. I still require charitable donations even to keep up the website. Again, some of those who first come to read my message and book will be tempted to SHOOT THE MESSENGER instead of psychologically accepting the visions and/or common sense and logical conclusions and views by respected geologists and scientists. I'm not an acclaimed geologist and I do not have a Ph.D. I had a normal and happy childhood, and as a product of the Industrial Age and all its free time and affluence, in a sense would like nothing more than for the party to continue. But again, NO amount of prayer by anyone will refill the oil fields.

Storing food and water and other supplies, as well as buying an econobox (politically correct, but expensive and you have to consider if the cost is actually worth the money you will save, even if gas reaches $7 to $10 in the mid term), or riding a bike from now on, will give you an initial "cushion" that will support you without fear during the initial "shocks," which I speculate will be like 1973/1974 at first: Lines at gas stations, hoarding at supermarkets, and intermittent power outages. Unlike the Y2K scare, we do not have a universally declared date of "zero point." Peak Oil is not an exact science, as far as timing goes, but the evidence is overwhelming that it is "soon."

In the later stages, once people realize the price of oil will never go down again, or Peak Oil becomes mainstream, which admittedly won't happen until it's too late for the majority to actually do anything about, expect shortages of solar panels, batteries etc. Prime real estate in depressed rural areas will be in demand. People will want to join survivalist communities. In a sense this is a rerun of Y2K and the computer scare was just a warm-up, as were the 1970's oil shocks and doom-and-gloom pessimism. This time we are heading towards the downslope of the cliff. This is where the actual rubber meets the road. The writing is on the wall. The wolf is at the door.

Remember, this will be a new PERMANANT condition, and not cyclical hysteria that comes about when oil prices reach new highs at the pump. Indeed, it is entirely possible that oil prices could DECLINE again, to more acceptable levels; should this occur, don't be disillusioned that Peak Oil is not real; you can ignore the evidence, and come to the conclusion that the recent oil price run-up of 2004 and 2005 and 2006 ($57 a barrel as of April, a peak, but went down again, but recently spiked to $75 after hurricane Katrina, then finally $145 then back down to $90 a barrel) was temporary, and become complacent.

Many in the Peak Oil community, who have been following this carefully and with great anticipation, are convinced that this is indeed the peak as I write this, and are following the daily market price of oil, convinced that every uptick in price is more "evidence" of more to come.

As a prophet focused only on the big picture I've learned not to follow the market on a daily, short-term basis. I'm not a futures trader, and will not give any financial advice necessarily on either short-term oil or the stock market, which I view as having reached "Peak Stock" as of 2000, as I long since predicted; stocks will NEVER again regain their glory, despite the mainstream spin and "talk-up" of the spinsters, money magazines and stockbrokers and central banks who want you to keep your money in; it’s all coming to an end.

They know what will happen if a significant percentage of the sheeple take Peak Oil seriously, or gold seriously, or any commodity of "real value," since U.S. dollars (since approximately 1973, "petrodollars") and fiat money are, and will be, utterly worthless in the long run.

Understandably some of you, while not fearing death, will be bummed out as to the NATURE of your death. No one wants to be killed or tortured to death at the hands of another, and neither do I.

But nothing is written in stone, especially concerning specific dates, and that includes WWIII. Perhaps the missiles will just rot away in their silos across America, never to be launched. In a best-case collapse scenario, America will still "function" for a while, but the economy will have collapsed, its citizens reduced to poverty, rendering it a "Bangladesh with missiles." And an unused weapon is a useless weapon.

I also worry about India and Pakistan in the coming global meltdown, since tensions will rise, chaos will erupt, and many will consider it "time" to settle scores. Furthermore, nuclear capable India and China has been saber-rattling over competition over oil. Either way we are facing the end of an era, of America as a global economic and political power, and this is due to happen even if Peak Oil were total fiction! The house of financial cards is teetering on the brink as I write this.

Peak Oil is the NEXT BIG thing to watch and research. Do you own research! Stay out of denial!

During the collapse of modern civilization, I will go hungry like the rest of the population, but unlike 99% of the spoiled and obese American society, I have suffered true want and hunger, desperation and lack of hope in my drifting and homeless situations throughout my adult years of the 20's.

This is why I have wisdom to teach, and you should learn from someone who KNOWS what it is like, to

A) go truly hungry,

B) act on that hunger, and

C) experience the KARMA and reaction from the act.

I know that a certain percentage of you will indeed wind up unemployed, bankrupt, unprepared and even homeless and on the streets. You can listen to the lessons and survival skills from someone who has been there. Fortunately I was homeless during an affluent society in an affluent age.

In the coming collapse, should Peak Oil manifest in crises, the soup kitchens will be overwhelmed, with supplies short. Many will suffer and experience true hunger for the first time in their lives, including my readers who have done nothing to prepare. Like Y2K, only a very small percentage will take action regardless of sincerity, honest motives, evidence and appealing arguments made and even if made often. It is, in fact, one of my goals, to get a few of you, who may be middle class, to take LONG TERM steps to prepare, NOW, before it's too late.

You may be one of the long-term survivors of the collapse and my vision of Starburst 2020 if you can grow your own food and be self-sufficient. I realize not all of you have the means to prepare to this degree, which is why I say the least you can do is accumulate at least a few months’ worth of food and be prepared to lose your employment for an extended period, in a society WITHOUT welfare, Social Security or food stamps. Expect to lose your health insurance.

Take multivitamins and eat in-season, locally grown food, fruits and vegetables. After the collapse we will no longer get energy-intensive and expensive-to-produce TV dinners, canned foods, lettuce from Mexico or grapes from California or fresh oranges from Florida, or energy-wasteful beef, chicken and pork.

Even IF nothing ever happens, and I am dead wrong, this is always good advice, since most Americans or Europeans are only a few paychecks from homelessness. Remember that in the prophecies I'm giving you, you will be joining millions of bankrupt, hungry, car-less urbanites and former suburbanites and in desperation, combined with 300 million hand guns, the unprepared, desperate and unascendent - although they may seem like OK guys to hang around with as long as they are on a full stomach and watching the Superbowl - will turn to riots, rebellion, looting and pillaging. At least this will be the case in the early stages of civilizational collapse.

In 2000, before I was baptized, I fasted for 7 days. The first few meals are the hardest. Then the sensation of hunger, while still prominent, is no longer predominant, as the metabolism shuts down and enters "survival mode." In the early days of my final "fast," in my final incarnation at the End of the Days (age, and civilization) as promised in Daniel 12:13, I will comfort many of the sick and starving people in my region if possible with the promise of the Hereafter to shortly come.

Then, when I myself get too weak, I will use whatever strength and wasted muscles are left to climb a local foothill with a few gallons of water, where I will sit cross-legged, praying, quietly, intensely and patiently waiting until my body begins to shut down. As I breath my last few breaths as a modern prophet, all prophecies having been fulfilled, and the society around me no longer functioning, I will finally leave my body, where I am to be trained and promoted to the celestial identity and function of an Ancient of Days.

I will probably meet an influx of millions of departed souls, all coming at once. The function of an Ancient of Days is Celestial Judge and a ruler of sorts. It has not been revealed to me as to what I'll be doing in the afterlife, but I have peace in the revelation of this soul promotion. It is by no means a self-important, ego-driven desire, but instead was a humbling revelation. While existing on earth I am a mere messenger. But something grand and a position as yet too glorious to be revealed awaits me.

You must rid yourself of your fear of death, as well as the concept that death is wrong, bad, something to be mourned, etc. It's merely a transition, and what follows is something, when experienced, so glorious, that you will wonder why you hung on to life and feared death!

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To most of you this will be the first time you've ever heard of Peak Oil. Even though there are better experts than me, remember where you heard of the idea! Don't say I didn't warn you! God placed me here at the "end of the days" for many reasons, among them to attain to spiritual, angelic ascension and enlightenment, and to warn people of a truly historic end of the age and of civilization as we know it.

As the old Chinese curse goes, "May you live in interesting times."

You may or may not agree with my conclusions. I'm telling you to keep an open mind and do the research on the topic yourself. Like Y2K, it is full of detailed data and can seem overwhelming at first, but the truth is out there. You too can become a mini-expert on Peak Oil, and by doing so, such as by memorizing familiar data, you can impress the naysayers, those in denial, and convince skeptical family members. The Pollyannas are currently in psychological control, and the spinmeisters will despise you. If you expect everyone to love you, you will never be a "preacher" of Peak Oil! Expect and relish persecution, knowing it is from those simply in the DARK.

Start with http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net, and take the time to read the supplied links. This is an excellent site; I've read it a few times, and read many of the sources. It gives good arguments, lots of info and links. He's a lawyer and has written a book and has appeared on Coast to Coast AM.

Then go to http://www.peakoil.net/

Then read the grandfather of Peak Oil and population die-off sites: http://www.die-off.org

 

Sister Sites by reincarnated messenger Daniel, related to year 2012 Mayan doomsday and "end of the world" or endtimes prophecies and economic collapse/Peak Oil analysis issues:

http://endtimeprophet2012.com

Daniel's "Messianic" sollution where YOU can participate with others together in regular, synchronized prayers for world peace and spiritual ascension for year 2012 related issues:

http://www.worldpeaceprayervision.org