This is unedited, exactly as it appeared when sent from the Listbot mailing system

Subject: Year 2000 Economics: Post Y2K Update
Year 2000 Economics. 
http://www.angelfire.com/or/truthfinder 

Janurary 5, 2000 
Dear subscribers, 

Here is first update of the millennium. 
As always, also available on the home page. 
Sorry...not allowed to give account of recent 
experiences just yet. 
(Ignore any spelling or gramatical errors;-) 




"We credit scarcely any person 
with good sense except those who 
are of our opinion" La Roche 
Foucald 

"The art of being wise is knowing 
what to overlook" William James 

"It's a rash man who reaches a 
conclusion before he gets to it" 
Jacob Levin 

"It will take months to see the 
damage build up from Y2K...Initially 
next year[2000], I think the optimists 
will claim "victory," -- it will take 
time for the pessimists to feel 
vindicated." Roliegh Martin 

It is an absolute, pleasant surprise to arrive 
on the other side of the millennium not only 
unscathed, but to experience the utter joy 
and satisfaction of the world-wide 
celebrations that seemed to pull all of 
humanity into a unified sense of collective 
euphoria! Heck, even the weather was 
perfect! To witness this once-in-a-lifetime 
event come to pass in such a positive manner 
is quite inspirational to say the least. 

Through such collective will to rise to the 
occasion and demolish y2k, as we have over 
the past months and years, we as a human 
race demonstrated once again that through 
working together toward a unified goal, have 
essentially eradicated a serious, universal, 
technological threat. A threat that had it not 
been identified and tackled in a timely and 
with full vigor would surely have meant total 
disaster. 

Clearly the alarm bells--rung loud, hard and 
persistently by y2k alarmists and 
activists--were definitely heeded by those in 
authority. Sufficient action and attention was 
taken on all sides, around the world to avert 
what was a very real threat to our modern, 
technologically advanced civilization. 

It bring the author intense joy-- not 
disappointment -- that the worst of the dire 
assessments, predictions about y2k made on 
this site and by other prominent y2k experts 
were wrong; defeated and disabled. In fact, 
the rollover was such a non-event even the 
ultra-optimists were surprised; I share in thier 
hubris. The reader may think the author to be 
licking my wounds, ashamed and silly? 
Absolutely not! This issue is exactly 
something I fully expected, and hoped for; 
some e-mails I received shortly after January 
1 are included near the end of this article. 

First realize that y2k is not over. Surely it is 
and will be far less damaging as previous 
anticipated and this is cause for relief--at 
least in the short-run. Remember; as 
mentioned in the last update, the majority of 
bugs will turn up in strange and wonderful 
ways well into 2000. I also downplayed the 
significance of the rollover. Will it be enough 
to significantly disrupt the economy? I no 
longer believe so. Does this mean the current 
boom will continue forever and ever? NO! 
The general thesis of this site remains certain 
and trustworthy has been so since first 
written, as I mentioned in the September 28, 
1999 Update Notice this has nothing to do 
with y2k): 

"I wish the party could go on 
forever, but history tells us it 
must not, and the hangover is 
upon us. The evidence is 
overwhelmingly in favor of a 
catastrophic bust in the 
months/years ahead. A bust 
that, like the unprecedented 
nature of the current boom, will 
be equally unprecedented in its 
devastation. I've tried to be my 
own best critic (a devil's 
advocate, if you will) and form 
a best-case scenario. The 
absolute, most positively 
optimistic outcome I can 
conjure up after spending and 
researching thousands of hours 
over the past two years, is a 
recession with a drop of 5 to 
7% (real) GDP, deflation rate 
of 4% to 8%, and an 
unemployment rate of around 
9% to 12%. 

This is best case. 

A medium/worst case is a 
collapse of more than half of the 
nation's banks, (real) GDP 
drop of 25-30%, tremendous 
deflation, and an unemployment 
rate of 25%+. 

It may surprise some of you to 
know that I am substantially 
more optimistic (on the y2k 
portion) than was the case one 
year ago. Believe it or not, I 
tend to (partly) agree with Peter 
De Jager that we (at least in the 
U.S., Canada, Britain, 
Australia) have accomplished 
enough y2k repairs and are 
now making contingency plans 
across the board to avert a total 
collapse--i.e. The End Of The 
World As We Know It..... 

Many seem to think that merely 
because I bring up the 
possibility of a 
societal/civilizational collapse 
that I'm also predicting such an 
event. Well I'm not! Nor am I 
predicting a permament or 
long-term power-grid 
shut-down or full-scale nuclear 
launch on Janurary 1,2000.... 

I AM predicting we will have 
to experience a period 
severe economic tribulation 
that will fundamentally alter 
the world's economic 
structure from which a new 
strategic paridagm will 
emerge: a full, total global 
war in the next twenty years 
that will be fought with 
maximum effort, where 
nuclear weapons will be 
used, and the 
America/China/India/Russian 
"problem" will be 
resolved...but only after a 
culimnation of unforseeable 
events climax into World 
War Three in which either a 
new global power for the 
next long cycle is 
determined, or re-appointed 
(that is, the USA)..." 

Also said was: 

"Furthermore, we need to get 
away from the concept that 
whatever y2k effects that are to 
happen will happen "on Jan, 1, 
2000." Actually, only a small 
percentage will take place then, 
and they won't all be of 
catastrophic nature either. This 
is not an all or nothing, either/or 
situation. Most of the failures, in 
terms of volume will be 
throughout 2000, showing up in 
strange and wonderful ways. 

"Again, January 1, 2000 is 
NOT going to be the end of the 
world, and nor has the author 
ever implied such a scenario..." 

The author also said: 

"...It appears that the market 
will remain adrift until early 
January 2000--save for a 
final-week-panic from y2k 
preparation-- when it is 
guaranteed to begin the long 
road into the abyss. Bear 
markets rarely start in this time 
frame (January) but when they 
do happen they're of very large 
consequence, as was the case 
in 1974...." 

So far this is correct. 

Therefore this site will continue to cover the 
coming economic catastrophe that will begin 
this year and last, roughly, until 2004, and 
will be severe. This must take 
place...regardless of y2k. 

First and foremost let it be known that the 
great majority of this site was written in a 
time period when y2k was still not being 
taken seriously, awareness was low and 
insufficient remediation efforts were almost 
universal. That is, early 1998 to early 1999. 
Save for some updates in the archive section, 
this site was essentially not modified at all, 
including the main homepage; the wording 
and assessments were nearly the same as 
first written in spring/summer of 1998. 

Hard data on true y2k status and progress 
was seemingly non-existent at the time and 
therefore in attempting to form an assessment 
on the magnitude and outcome of y2k, we 
had to assume the worst. Or, in other words; 
organizations and entities in question were 
guilty until proven innocent. We had to use 
whatever info & evidence came our way and 
to err on the side of caution. There was a 
good reason why governments around the 
world prepared for martial law. 

The Macro-economic Thesis on this site, first 
written in April 1998, remains fundamentally 
sound, logical in it's methodology and the 
conclusions reached therein would surely 
have come to pass...had y2k come in 1998. 
However, since that time the variables and 
inputs to the equation have dramatically 
changed . 

One portion that has been significantly 
altered was the greatly increased efforts, 
attention and resources made since that time. 
Y2K budgets rose substantially in the right 
places reflecting increased concern in 
corporate and government agencies. The 
$250 billion spent worldwide was not 
mis-spent or wasted on a "hoax." 
Corporation do not niavely frantically spend 
hundreds of millions of dollars of precious 
money on a trivial non-threatening problem. 

"...It was not a hoax, and tens of 
thousands have given everything 
to fix the problem, many sacrificing 
their careers, to remediate the 
antiques, instead of mastering the 
new technologies. All the 
thousands of Y2K websites will 
disappear, and the public will forget 
those who worked into the night, 
warning and cajoling businesses 
and governments to get off their 
asses and do something...." Alan 
Simpson 

The second factor I erred in not changing 
was the relative importance, or triviality of 
the millennium bug in respect to compliancy 
or non-compliancy. Surely the work 
completed thus far has been successful in the 
vast majority of mission-critical systems. 
Moreover, a non-compliant apparatus or 
system was not nearly as serious as 
previously thought. In fact, most glitches are 
benign as many computers and chips will 
function as normal in non-y2k-compliant 
state; it is the systems that operate heavily 
with date calculations that require near 100% 
compliancy in software such as government 
payroll systems (eg.: Social Security 
Administration), banking and financial 
institutions. They perceived it as a threat to 
survival thence took the proper steps; and 
were generally successful. 

The third variable being the severity of 
y2k-faulty embedded systems (chips). We 
never really knew the real percentage at risk 
or how they would react systemically to the 
Century Date Change, and opinions varied 
widely. In making this assessment I had to 
again err on the side of caution and presume 
failures would be significant and /or 
widespread and assume the worst. It came 
to pass, obviously, being that power and 
telecommunications--even water and 
gas--were scarcely disrupted, that most 
embedded system problems were either 
trivial in nature, or repaired and replaced in 
time. Keep in mind: we are still in a 
bad-y2k-news-blackout were any 
technological failures will be blamed on 
anything other than y2k; even when 
blatantly y2k-related. The propaganda is still 
operating in full-force. 

Through late 1998 to late 1999, I and most 
other y2k gurus had failed to recognize these 
altered, positive developments; our minds 
had still been stuck in the pessimistic battle of 
awareness. A battle that had already been 
won, at least in the technological sense. 
Instead, we continued to fight a losing battle 
for public perception with the (idealistic) 
hope of shaking up the unaware public or 
anyone else who would listen into personal 
or community preparation. This was a battle 
bound to be lost, not part of The Plan and 
became futile after February 1999; and most 
failed to recognize it. Though the intentions of 
the skeptics were well placed, our struggle 
against what we perceived as an 
overly-optimistic PR campaign failed 
because, it turnes out, this optimism was 
well-placed. Actually, the general public 
never really did "get it" and still don't. This 
was the first major issue to be argued, 
assessed, debated almost entirely on the 
newly-emerged medium called the internet. 

I believe there are few coincidences in life 
and worldy affairs. The internet, brimming 
with knowledge, opinions and information 
arrived at precisely the same time knowledge 
of the severity and threat of y2k became 
robust. This emergence first came in 1997 
when awareness of y2k spread and grew 
quite rapidly. Previously very few 
comprehended the extent and potential 
societal implications and whatever y2k info 
was available could easy be assimilated by 
one person. 

At that time there were only a few precursor 
y2k consultants and alarmists pounding the 
pavement such as Peter de Jager, Russ 
Kelly, John Westergaard, Jim Lord, Ed 
Yourdon, Ed Yardeni, Senator 
Bennett--even John Koskinen among others 
that accomplished a great deal of awareness 
(and many made some ca$h for this as well). 
This first stage of awareness effectively 
shocked a multitude into action and therefore 
was beneficial. 

I am not saying that we would have 
been better off if the existence of 
the Y2K problem had never been 
publicized. In that event, the 
remedial actions that have been 
expended over the past two years 
would surely have fallen short. 
Although the desirability of 
publicizing the existence of a 
pending significant technical 
breakdown was never in 
question--and never should have 
been..." Alan Greenspan 

There was also an emergence of one who 
has probably had the greatest influence on 
the entire y2k scene than any: Gary North. 
Gary is a Christian Fundamentalist with a 
doctorate in history and since late 1996 has 
built a massive 7000 page/link y2k site, 
updated almost daily with a multitude of 
information, making it the foremost 
encyclopedia and database on general y2k 
information. Addmittedly pessimistically 
biased and with a somewhat religious 
agenda; against the immorality of the banking 
system. 

Gary fought many battles in dealing with 
adversaries in his rise to prominence dealing 
with this highly controvertial, complex subject 
using much wisdom, and debate. It is largely 
through the writings of his site, persistense 
and presense that we passed the threshold 
on the millennium without a hitch. Had these 
precursor gurus not been present, or not 
taken seriously (and many have wrongly 
wished they would have silenced--or put to 
death) the world would have experienced, 
come late 1999 and 2000, a total panic; 
possibly societal collapse. 

Reality Of Prophecy 

The most rewarding and satisfactory 
prophecy, prediction or future assessment 
one can make is one where the prophet is 
ultimately wrong, through a self-defeating 
mechanism. With the whole situation y2k this 
has definitely occurred, though most do not 
see this as quite obvious, and therefore have 
been constantly attacking the messenger. 
Even after y2k. 

Historically unprecedented, y2k was a 
serious, reality-based, technological problem 
which also involved potentially severe, 
negative social consequences had insufficient 
warning been applied. 

There are several ways the future can be 
altered. In respect to y2k, the future time-line 
of events and social behavior was indeed 
significantly modified to the positive, as 
witnessed the final outcome. 

When, for example, y2k awareness was 
dismally low and still considered a fringe 
subject in early 1998, I Daniel, took it upon 
myself to repeatedly contact Gary North, Ed 
Yourdon and Art Bell-- popular night-time 
radio host with 10 to 20 million open-minded 
listeners. (No; there were no ulterior motives 
for doing this) Gary finally made it on for a 
frightening 4-hour show in May, 1998. The 
result of this show and other shows following 
was profound as it shocked millions into 
realizing just how big, complex and serious 
the y2k problem really was; including 
thousands of influential politicians, corporate 
managers, authorities, government agencies 
and the mainstream media. 

Through this cause and effect relationship, 
awareness and thenceforth preventative 
action spread, cascaded and snowballed 
throughout the English-speaking world; the 
part of the world most computer dense and 
therefore in need of such. 

The author's site has "only" received 150,000 
hits since its inception before 2000, a 
disproportionate percentage of readers were 
of authoritative and influential identity 
including a multitude of senators (Robert 
Bennett & Chris Dodd), congressmen, 
business leaders, among other y2k gurus. So, 
therefore, my role in creating and 
accomplishing a self-defeating prophecy 
has been significant. Most of this was done 
behind the scenes; witness the Art Bell/Gary 
North set-up; word spread rapidly. This is 
not said to be prideful or boastful as it was 
simply, I know now, part of my Job and 
Mission (more on that in future article). 

One aspect of y2k taken seriously was social 
reaction thereof, in particular, the 
consequence of mass preparation (referred 
to as "panic" since only a few would ever 
have been able to prepare as such 
simultaneously) as well as loss of confidence 
in the financial markets such as the stock 
market and (most importantly, the fragility of) 
the banking system . No one has beat on the 
drum of the banking more than Gary North. 
In the persuasive axe he ground based 
immorality (of banking), he wished a collapse 
of this system on the basis according to how 
it is viewed by the Bible. 

What he was not privy to was that such 
pre-ordained, wide-spread discussion and 
awareness of bank-runs/panic had the 
opposite effect he had intended; officials 
intervened in reponse, through many channels 
such as the media with all sorts of 
bump-in-road proclamations and effectively 
psychologically subdued the public from 
taking such action. In fact, to further keep the 
public in greed mode (as opposed to fear 
mode) the central banks flooded the system 
with money; currency and fiat, expanding and 
already over-inflated bubble. 

Lesson: The message of the alarmists 
and activists was heard loud and clear, 
taken seriously enough, early enough so 
as to alter the final outcome and actual 
flow of time, and therefore all of you 
deserve a great big pat on the back; give 
credit where credit is due. 

We have done most of this unconsciously; 
we were part of a grand conspiracy called 
God's Plan (more on this in future article). 
While it was true many had financial or 
religious motives behind such 
"fear-mongering," the end result was positive; 
The way it was supposed to occur. There 
are also Agents working behind the scenes 
as well. 

The author's motives were never material. 
Sure there have been ads on this site in the 
past (any and all ads are now gone: except 
for the pop-up required by Angelfire) but the 
ultimate motive, I know now, was divinely 
instucted. I have made perhaps $360 from 
y2k and my site, total, yet have spent 
thousands of hours on it, and with deep 
contemplation. In other words, this site has 
been charity: To aid in understanding; to 
motivate; to speculate into the future; what is 
to come. 

Almost from day one anyone courageous 
enough to even suggest y2k may have 
negative consequences--esspecially in the 
midst of a record economic boom where 
optimism, over-confidence prevailed was 
continually attacked, assaulted. A public 
news blackout was in full-force. Greed, not 
fear has been the emotion of the masses and 
investors. It is thus thus which contains the 
ultimate seeds of the up-coming economic 
catastrophe. As such; the longer and stronger 
the recent and current boom and bubble 
continues, the greater the final reckoning. 

A Prophet's Error...Or Victory? 

The major mistake I, Daniel, had made was 
to disregard the intuition I obviously felt and 
discerned since early 1999. I truly sensed 
things had changed for the positive and there 
really was reason for genuine optimism. 
Unfortunately the mental portion of the mind 
remained in this old awareness battle of 1998 
therefore staying the smae path of pessimism 
and negativity. My instincts, however were 
were screaming otherwise. 

This was shown to me in a dream in full color 
in July 1998 that I briefly mentioned to my 
subscribers. I had a dream where I was up in 
a sky scrapper overlooking a major city 
shortly before the y2k rollover. In this 
dream--seen in full clarity--I was full of 
anxiety in anticipation, looking down at the 
brightly lit metropolis, waiting for the power 
to shut down and chaos to break loose. To 
my shock, in this dream, virtually nothing 
happened across the country in the following 
hours! When I awoke I figured it must have 
been a nightmare; considering the consensus 
among most y2k gurus that there would 
almost surely have been major outages and 
other problems. Maybe I should be more 
keen and trust these dreams...it was 
correct! 

At this time the author felt in the heart that 
covering it (negative portion of y2k ) was no 
longer viable; it seemed senseless to continue 
such y2k doomsaying; hence very few 
updates on the site since then. Actually, the 
author really and truly did become more 
optimistic, as there was genuine reason for it! 
Shortly after the December 6, 1999 update. 
It is too long and of massive character to be 
a mere "article" and will become a book, or 
series of books. By signing up as a 
subscriber (top of left frame) one will get a 
rough copy preview in a few weeks. 

So what positive came of y2k? 

The scare has compelled banks, phone 
companies, manufacturers to make thier 
computerized nervous systems vastly more 
efficient and cheaper to run; a focus, 
discipline and encouragement to make the 
changes and upgrades, weeding out aged or 
superfluous coding and programs they knew 
had to be made anyways. Companies will 
recoup any monies spent in the long-term 
because they now have excellent, modern 
networks, completely tested and working to 
perfection. That can only be positive. 

We have shook up many people out of thier 
modern-world slumber, preparing for and 
thinking about afuture disaster, which will 
come in very handy when things get rough 
such as a natural disaster or period of 
unemployment. People that prepared should 
NOT feel silly. In fact, they should continue 
to prepare since the coming years WILL be 
rough, regardless of y2k. 

Governments, agencies and communities 
now have a cohesive, co-operative 
infrastructure and system in place to deal 
with any natural or man-made disaster. 

there are many more, of course, but the point 
is made. Now, time for some personal 
attacks received shortly after the rollover: 

"Glad you were wrong and I know 
you are too!" Robert 

"I'm thinking you've got to feel 
pretty silly about now... 

Oh well, the great thing about 
armageddon not occurring is it 
gives you an opportunity to predict 
the next one! Better luck next time. 
Heck, if you had to watch CNN all 
this weekend like I did in our "Y2K 
Command Center", you would've 
been completely filled in on all the 
ways that the world can still be 
destroyed - global warming, 
overpopulation, you name 
it!"...Stephen 

"Well Dan, I suppose that you and 
the other Y2K doomsday gurus are 
feeling a little silly right about now, 
so I won't rub your nose in it too 
much, but I can't resist just a little. 
Jan 1 has come and gone, and far 
from a collape of the global 
computer network, riots and 
mayhem in U.S. cities, and nuclear 
plant meltdowns, as you and your 
friends predicted, there has not 
been even 1, count 'em ONE 
significant failure! One question, 
what are you going to do with all 
those dry goods, generators, and 
cabins in the wilderness?. Hard 
things to sell right now, as there is 
sure to be a market glut of them! 
HAH HAH!!" 

"Totally overreacted and jumped 
the gun about this issue. MEdia 
hype has fooled us all, we are still 
here and the world HAS NOT 
ended. I admit that I thought 
something bad was going to 
happen, but guess what? WE ARE 
ALL OK! The world has not ended! 
The Y2K hoax was created by 
capitalist corporations to fool 
people into buying water, extra 
food, generators and by extremist 
Christians who actually wanted 
something bad to happen, such as 
the fool Gary North. Next time we 
should stop being so 
gulible"....Natasha 

"I'll bet you feel like an absolute 
idiot today! You sure did waste 
your time by making this website! 
It's just another day here in the 
world! Have a Happy New 
Year!!!"...MATTY 

I need not say more to these folks, other than 
read the text above... Until next time, take 
care and God bless... Daniel